Arizona Attorney - January 2014

Political polling is inductive generalization.

Because polls in December 2011 showed
Newt Gingrich with 38 percent of the
Republican Primary vote, he declared,
“I’m going to be the nominee. It’s very hard not to look at
the recent polls and think that
the odds are very high I’m going
to be the nominee.” 1

His assertion, broken down, was really that because 38 percent of a tiny number of Republican primary voters who bothered to answer the poll say they love me, I will be the nominee—a small percent of a percent says I win!

Alas for Newt, he bumped up against
several polls that were not inductive
generalizations called elections.

Not to pick on Newt, all politicians
and advertisers play with inductive
generalizations. Most of us will
remember Trident Gum’s claim that,
“four out of five dentists recommended sugarless gum for
their patients who chew gum.”
Broken down, the claim is really that “four out of five dentists”
we sampled—for all we know, it could have been just five the
Trident Company picked—recommend any sugarless gum. And,
And don’t forget “Bayer with the active ingredient that doctors
recommend most.” In this inductive generalization, the sample
of “doctors” is undefined and that
“active ingredient” is nothing more
than generic aspirin (salicylic acid). 2

This use (or misuse) of inductive
generalizations calls to mind a great
quote from Mark Twain’s autobiog-
raphy:
“There are three kinds of lies: Lies,
damned lies, and statistics!” 3

Analogies are when we compare a particular thing to another particular thing. “This case is like that one” is an analogy. Analogies are made one to one rather than comparing many to one as with an inductive generalization.

Analogy is proof of resemblances, not that one thing is identical
to another. As John Stuart Mill commented,
“Two things resemble each other in one or more respects; a
certain proposition is true of one; therefore it is true of the
other” 4

Thus, the value or strength of the analogy depends on the quali-
ty of the comparison. In fact, as Mill implies, the stronger the
comparison, the closer the analogy is to a syllogism.

In law we call an analogy a precedent. These legal analogies
center on finding the resemblances of facts in past cases to the
present case. As renowned lawyer
Edward H. Levi said,
“The finding of similarity or
difference is the key step in
the legal process.” 5

ARIZONA ATTORNEY JANUARY 2014 22 www.azbar.org/AZAttorney 2. Above is an early Bayer ad featuring Aspirin and Heroin as useful household products.

John Stuart Mill
Edward H. Levi

“Think Like A Lawyer”

1. Gingrich Tells ABC News: “I’m Going to Be The Nominee” http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/ politics/2011/12/gingrich-tells- abc-news-im-going-to-be-the-nominee/ (last visited Nov. 14, 2013).

3. PAUL F. BOLLER & JOHN GEORGE, THEY NEVER SAID IT: A BOOK OF FAKE QUO TES, MISQUO TES AND MISLEADING ATTRIBUTIONS 123-24 (1989). Twain credited the quote of British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. 201.